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Research notes, market commentary, and long-form analysis from the Convexity investment team.

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The Tariff Mystery: Revenues Are Up, So Why Aren't Prices?

Tariff revenue is projected to surpass $300 billion annually — a figure that commands attention. Yet consumer prices have not moved in proportion. The gap between what tariffs should theoretically cost and what households are actually paying raises a question that most market commentary has not seriously engaged with.

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Back to the Future: The Return of US Manufacturing

The United States has placed a baseline tariff of 10% across the board on all countries, and multinational companies are moving rapidly to adjust their global supply chains. The implications for national security and financial markets run considerably deeper than the trade balance.

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Finally, Earnings Return to Growth

Q2 earnings announcements finished in late August, and we are now well into Q3. The headline story is that the S&P 500 had positive earnings growth year-over-year — including the non-tech sector, which hadn't seen earnings growth in over a year. Earnings grew by 11% for the S&P 500 as a whole.

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